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Morning shootaround - Aug. 20, 2008

Aug. 20, 2008
by: Scott
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I linked to this excellent Ian Thomsen article on Jermaine O'Neal this morning, but I want to single out certain parts that I think merit further discussion.

"You hear people say that you slowed down, that you don't have it anymore -- but you know that you still have it. All the naysayers who are saying that I lost a step, they'll get a full dosage of me next year."

Jermaine strikes me as a very proud guy. Combine the pride factor with the fact that he can opt out of his contract in '09 and he's an unrestricted free agent in 2010, and you have an extremely motivated basketball player.

They view O'Neal -- the marquee name in the six-player trade that sent point guard T.J. Ford, center Rasho Nesterovic, forward Maceo Baston and first-round draft pick Roy Hibbert to Indiana last month -- as the piece that could allow them to challenge the Boston Celtics.

That's a major reach. The Raptors won 41 games last season and the Celtics won 66. I could see the Celtics falling back into the 55-60 win range and the Raptors improving to the 47-52 win range, but that's probably the best case scenario for the Raptors. Of course, that's only taking the regular season into account.

"This is a chance for Jermaine to really make a statement," says Raptors president and general manager Bryan Colangelo, whose team's doctors examined O'Neal on July 8 and declared him healthy.

If Jermaine is truly as "broken down" as some people have said, Colangelo would not have made this trade — period.

O'Neal didn't come cheap: He has two years and $44.4 million remaining on his contract. But after missing an average of 29.5 games over the last four years, he has accumulated relatively low NBA mileage.

This is significant. While Jermaine is entering his 13th NBA season, he's played just over 20,000 minutes over that time — which is about where Chris Bosh should be after two more healthy seasons. Plus, O'Neal turns 30 in October, so it's not like he's over-the-hill, age-wise. Whether or not he's injury-prone and won't be available when the Raptors try to advance to the second round is another question entirely — one that nobody knows the answer to.

In order to complement the 6' 10" Bosh in Toronto, O'Neal will shift to center, where his knack for rebounding, drawing charges and altering shots -- he averaged at least two blocks in each of his eight seasons in Indiana -- will strengthen the Raptors' flimsy defense.

I'm a little sick of people underrating the Raptors' team defence. They finished 13th in team defence last season while allowing 107 points per 100 possessions. That's barely above-average but I wouldn't call that "flimsy". Compare that to the Knicks' defence that allowed 111.9 points per 100 possessions to finish second-to-last in the NBA. That's a flimsy defence. The Raptors' D was decent but unexceptional. O'Neal's presence could elevate them to Top-10 territory.

As for "shifting to center", I don't know how accurate their numbers are but 82games.com had O'Neal playing virtually all his minutes at center last season. On the other hand, a random sampling of Pacers boxscores when O'Neal played indicates that he started at power forward while either Jeff Foster or Troy Murphy played center. So I'm not really sure who I believe here, but I've watched him enough to believe that Jermaine isn't unfamiliar or uncomfortable with playing the 5.

At the other end O'Neal and Bosh are versatile enough to take turns playing high or low. Together they'll elevate 7-foot Andrea Bargnani, the No. 1 pick of the 2006 draft, who has struggled in his first two seasons but should thrive as the defense focuses on O'Neal and Bosh.

So we're assuming that Bargnani will be on the floor at the same time as CB and JO, are we? I don't expect to see that combo very often. Besides, I don't think defences were focusing on Bargnani much at all once they figured out they could leave him wide open and he still couldn't hit his shots. Any potential improvement by Andrea won't come from anywhere besides his own ability to realize his potential.

O'Neal's impending arrival has already prompted questions about whether Bosh, 24, should surrender his leadership of the Raptors. "I'm not brought in to be the new face of the team; I'm brought in to take the team to the next level," says O'Neal. "It's Chris's team, and I'm not coming in to step on his feet or [coach] Sam Mitchell's feet. But I'm not just trying to fit in, either. I'm trying to be dominant."

I'm sure Jermaine is watching the same Olympics we are, so I'm confident we can take this statement at face value. At the moment, Chris Bosh looks like he could become a Top 10 player in the NBA next season.

All in all, this article is exactly the kind of good news I'm sure most of us have been looking for in terms of Jermaine O'Neal's preparation and readiness to help form a two-headed monster of frontcourt dominance next season. And if you think I'm not pumped about this... well, I'm back, aren't I? 

Note: Pacers blogger Indy Cornrows has own take on JO's comments.

 

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