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So I guess a few of us (myself included) underestimated Jose Calderon's effect on this team, huh? After his return keyed impressive back-to-back wins, I took a look at the Raptors' schedule to try to convince myself that there's no way the team can stage a late charge into the post-season. Sadly, I came away feeling sickeningly unconvinced.
The next two games (against the Nets and Bucks) are both winnable — and if the Raptors can follow those wins by stealing one of the following four tough games (against the Magic, Cavs, Lakers and Hornets), they'll be sitting at 21-31 with 30 games to go. Ordinarily, you would assume that it would take at least a .500 record to get into the post-season, but Milwaukee is currently eighth in the East at 22-25 so it appears that the eighth seed will only need 38-40 wins to sneak in.
Only 10 of the games in the Raptors' final stretch of 30 games are against teams that are currently over .500. If we're willing to believe that a healthy Raptors squad is a middle-of-the-pack, .500-type team, it's not ridiculous to suggest that they could plow through those games at an 18-12 clip. If you haven't done the math already, that would give the Raptors a 39-43 record to close out the regular season and quite possibly grant them the unfortunate "honor" of being first round roadkill under the tire treads of whichever team seizes the first seed in the East.
If you're on my fantanking bandwagon, you should be rooting for the Bucks to finish strong so that it will take at least 41 wins to make the post-season. Unfortunately, Michael Redd is out for the season with tears in his ACL and MCL — so unless you think this is a classic "Ewing Theory" type of situation, it's going to be up to the Nets (currently 20-24) to raise that bar.
As it stands, the Raptors are only three games behind the Nets and three-and-a-half behind the Bucks. That's far from an insurmountable deficit and I don't consider any of the Knicks, Bobcats, Bulls or Pacers to be legitimate threats to challenge for that eighth spot. So it's probably going to be a fight to the finish between the Raptors and Nets. Coincidentally, those teams face each other on Wednesday.
I guess there's a first time for everything, because I'm going to go on record as saying I'm rooting for the Nets to win that game. I can't bear the thought of this Raptors squad finishing the season strong and possibly fooling Bryan Colangelo into believing this team is better than it actually is. And whatever you think about the upcoming draft class, I'd still prefer a top-10 pick to a 15th overall pick. This team needs all the help it can get.
What's that? You don't believe the Raptors can actually win 60 percent of their remaining games? Take another look at the schedule and try to maintain the strength of your conviction. Hey, maybe we'll get lucky and the Raptors' spirit will be crushed after losing five of their next six (which is certainly possible given the opponents). That would drop them to 14 games under .500 — hopefully right around the time Shawn Marion arrives and starts poisoning the team while he jacks up 20 shots per game.
Whoops, guess I tipped my hand there about why I'm in favor of the O'Neal-for-Marion deal. On top of the obvious benefits of Marion's expiring contract, I've never been more sure that a player coming to the Raptors in a trade is going to suck the life out of the team. Imagine a return of "The Mike James Experience" in Toronto but with even worse shot selection. Ahhh, I can't wait! 
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