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OK, have we calmed down yet? Have you taken some painkillers after you banged your head on your desk? Did you find your old corded mouse after you threw your cordless mouse against the wall? Good, then let's break down this "O'Neal + Moon + draft pick for Marion + Banks" trade.
Ira Winderman of the Miami Sun-Sentinel was the first reporter to release what appears to be the full details of the trade, so I'll quote his article.
According to a party with the details of the deal, the Heat will receive a first-round pick from Toronto in 2010, unless that pick is among the first 14 (lottery) selections. Should Toronto be in the draft lottery in 2010, in essence not make next season's playoffs, the Heat then would receive a 2010 second-round pick from the Raptors. The first-round pick then would be sent to the Heat in any year, from 2011 through 2014 that it is not among the first 14 selections (the next year Toronto makes the playoffs). Should the Heat not get the first-round pick by 2014, it then would receive a 2015 first-round pick from the Raptors. In addition, the Heat gained a $4 million trade exception in the transaction, which it can use to balance salaries in a deal for the next 12 months. To complete the transaction, the Heat will send cash to Toronto, with $3 million the maximum allowed by the league in such transactions.
Whew! Did you get all that? I guess we know now why this trade took so damn long. It's more complicated than Chinese algebra.
Let's get the biggest bone of contention out of the way first. None of us are happy that Colangelo included a first round pick in the deal. Since we would like to assume that the Raptors are going to make the playoffs next season (not really a safe assumption, I know, but just play along), that means the Heat will be able to use the Raptors' first round pick in 2010. If the Raptors don't make the playoffs next season, they keep the pick. Of course, there's a good chance Chris Bosh is a goner in that scenario, so some might say we're fucked either way.
In the weeks leading up to this trade, I was going under the assumption that Shawn Marion was simply a rental for the rest of the season and the Raptors would use the cap space from his expiring contract to go after other free agents. Now, I'm not so sure about that. Colangelo has a history with Marion. He drafted him and won a lot of games with him in Phoenix. It's not far-fetched to say that Colangelo could actually consider Marion to be a valuable player that factors into this team's long-term plans.
While it will obviously depend on how Marion meshes with the team over the remaining 27 games in the season as well as his willingness to sign an extension, I now believe that Colangelo wants him to be a core player on this team. He's a significant upgrade over Moon at small forward, and Colangelo will look at the healthy Raptors' starting lineup of Calderon, Parker, Marion, Bosh and Bargnani and believe that he has good-to-great players at four of the five positions.
Marion was a poor fit in Miami and with the exception of last night's spectacular game-winning dunk against the Bulls, he mostly seemed kind of bummed out there. I'm not really sure how he's going to fit into the Raptors' offense, but he's definitely going to shore up two key weaknesses on this team: rebounding and perimeter defense. As far as his offense goes, I think it's up to Jay Triano and Jose Calderon to figure out how to maximize his contributinons. Calderon is not and never will be Steve Nash, but if he can somehow loosen up, speed up, and throw it up for alley-oops more often than he ever has, there is a possibility Marion could be rejuvenated to somewhere close to his career averages of 18 points and 10 rebounds per game.
Realistically, I'm not hopeful that's going to happen. Players on this team are routinely forced to create their own offense and that's not really Marion's forte. He only averaged 12 points per game with Miami this season and I wouldn't be shocked if that continued in Toronto.
If you're wondering about Marcus Banks, don't put too much thought into it. He's a scrub and he'll probably be out of the NBA when his contract expires in 2011. He might surpass Jason Kapono as the worst contract on this team. At least Kapono can shoot, occasionally.
I don't like this trade very much right now, but I'm not devastated because when a team is performing as piss-poorly as this one, I am perfectly fine with taking a chance like this. The Raptors still have their 2009 first rounder and it might end up being a pretty high one. If that pick turns into a talented shooting guard like James Harden or Gerald Henderson, then this team could conceivably return to respectability as soon as next sesaon.
Of course, there's also a possibility that Shawn Marion will walk after this season and Colangelo could use that cap space to give Hedo Turkoglu a four-year, $44 million contract. In that case, I expect I'll quit this blog, shave my head and join a monestary. 
Reminder: If you haven't done so yet (or if you're new to the blog), click the "Send Kat to Chicago" graphic in the right column (scroll up to see it) and register a vote for "Katrina @ Fickle Feline 2.0: The Rewards & Benefits of Blogging". If she wins the contest, she'll make a guest post in this blog before the end of the season. She's a funny writer so you won't be disappointed.
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