|
After Friday night's debacle at Madison Square Garden, I wasn't particularly looking forward to Sunday afternoon's rematch against the Knicks at the ACC. But the boys in red-and-white surprised me and actually showed up for this game and played like they gave a damn.
It was good to see four Raptors put up double-doubles and we all had to be pleased to see Andrea Bargnani get back on track as he figured out that nobody on the Knicks could guard him. He took smart shots and took it to the hole at the right moments while scoring 28 points (his third-highest total of the season) on eight-of-15 shooting. Even better, he grabbed 10 rebounds and blocked three shots — just like a real center!
However, the guy who impressed me the most on Sunday was Shawn Marion. He's only three games into his stint as a Raptor, but he's already shattered some misconceptions I had about him.
Misconception #1: He's a selfish player. On the contrary, he moves the ball around better than any other non-point-guard on the team. He doesn't just look for his own shot, he's more than willing to help create scoring opportunities for his teammates.
Misconception #2: His basketball IQ isn't that high. Again, it's only three games, but after Sunday's game I've concluded that he is probably the smartest player on this team. I know that's not saying much considering some of the mooks he has to play with, but Marion's court awareness is clearly second-to-none on the Raptors. He had five of Toronto's seven offensive rebounds on Sunday, and the majority of those were a result of Marion putting himself in the right position to grab those boards. The difference between his hoops savvy and the guy he replaced is like day and night.
Misconception #3: He's only here to play out his contract and do whatever it takes to maximize his next deal. OK, this one probably isn't entirely a misconception but he's doing a good job of acting like he cares whether this team wins or loses. He's saying all the right things in the press and he seems to be taking on a leadership role in getting the Raptors to communicate more on defense. Maybe his agent explained to him that the Raptors can pay him more money than most of his potential suitors and that it would be in his best interest to make a good impression here.
Speaking of which... who are Marion's potential suitors in the off-season? Depressed Fan has a bookmark-worthy post about potential 2009 free agents and the teams that might have the cap space to go after them. If we assume that Marion is going to be looking for something in the range of $10 million per season for his next contract, there will probably only be three teams with the ability to make him that kind of offer: Oklahoma City ($15.9 million in cap space), Memphis ($19.6 million) and Detroit ($17.5 million).
Let's start with the obvious first choice: Detroit. Would Joe Dumars consider Marion to be an upgrade over Tayshaun Prince? Perhaps, but Prince has two more years and around $21 million left on his contract — and in this economic climate, I don't think that will be an easy contract to trade. Call it a hunch, but I don't see Dumars making Marion a priority (at least not while Ron Artest is on the market... I kid! I kid!) They're going to need a big man and a point guard and Marion is neither of those.
Next, we have Oklahoma City. I haven't been able to watch too many of their games, but I hear there's this Durant kid playing small forward for them who might be pretty good. Jeff Green has shown some promise as their power forward, so that significantly reduces the likelihood they'd try to sign Marion to play the four. Besides all that, it really doesn't make sense to sign somebody like Marion for a sizable chunk of change when they're obviously years away from contending.
Finally, there's Memphis, who have Rudy Gay as their small forward and are in the same position as OKC in terms of being nowhere near contender status. They do, however, have a potential hole at power forward as Hakim Warrick has played the majority of their minutes at that position and he'll be a restricted free agent after the season. Even if they let Warrick sign elsewhere, I can't see how it would make sense for them to give Marion the kind of money he'd demand to play there.
I suppose there's also the possibility that Marion could sign with a contender at a mid-level salary. But do you really think he's going to take $3-4 million less per season to do that? He might, but that would surprise the hell out of me. For all the misconceptions he's dispelling, I'm pretty sure the dude still wants to get paid as much as possible.
All things considered, I think there is a better than 50 percent chance Marion will re-sign with the Raptors after this season. He'll probably ask for four years and at least $40 million, but maybe Colangelo can convince him to take three years at 24 milly. Crazy as it might sound, there's a good chance he's not going to get a better offer. And frankly, it would be nice to have a guy on this team who plays tough defense, crashes the boards and doesn't take very many bad shots. 
P.S. Thanks to everyone who voted for my wife last week in the "BlogHer '09" contest. To her surprise (not mine), she got the most votes so she won. Now, of course, she has to live up to her end of the deal and write a RaptorBlog post this season. It's just too bad the Raptors don't play the Nets again because she despises Vince Carter.
|
