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I've been doing this long enough to learn my NBA predictions are never more likely to be wrong than when they concern the Toronto Raptors — the team I follow more than all the other teams combined. Consider this post my act of penance for all the Raptors predictions I got wrong before the season.
I was wrong to think that Chris Bosh's impressive defence in the Beijing Olympics would carry over to this season. It's particularly annoying for me to have to point out that Frank Zicarelli was right about this.
I was wrong to believe that Jermaine O'Neal would have a significantly positive impact on the Raptors' team defence. The team is 22nd in the league in Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) compared to 13th in the 2007-08 season. I'm not saying it's J.O.'s fault, but look at what Dwight Howard does for Orlando's defence and you will understand how important a dominant post defender is.
I was wrong about Jose Calderon having a chance to be an All-Star reserve this season. I know it's been a tough season for him, injury-wise, but I no longer think an All-Star appearance is in his future. He's just not enough of an impact player, no matter what kind of numbers he puts up.
I was wrong to predict that Anthony Parker wouldn't suffer much of a drop-off this season after his 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons were basically identical. His shooting percentage is way down, his defence is deteriorating, and his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) for the season is 12.0 after back-to-back seasons at 14.4. He turns 34 in June so I think we're witnessing the beginning of the end for A.P.
I was wrong to assume that we could ignore Jamario Moon's occasional boneheadedness because of his rebounding, shot-blocking and general hustle. His rebounding and shot-blocking production dropped precipitously this season, his hustle was sporadic and his shot selection was among the worst I've ever witnessed from a Raptor. Nice guy, but he won't be missed.
I was wrong to believe that Jason Kapono was overpaid, but might prove to be useful this season with a couple of low-post forces in Bosh and O'Neal to help him get open looks. Turns out he's grossly overpaid and is quite simply a horrendous basketball player. It actually angers me that he averages 24 minutes per game and neither Sam Mitchell nor Jay Triano seem cognizant of the fact that he is one of the suckiest players in the National Basketball Association. If you can name a worse player who has played more minutes than him this season, I'll be shockamazed. (And yes, I just invented that word.)
Add up all these wrong predictions, and it's easy to see how I was so wrong to predict that the Raptors were a mortal lock to make the playoffs this season and that they might even battle for a fourth seed in the East. If I got your hopes up before the season when I suggested that this Raptors team might be among the best in franchise history, I'm sorry.
Then again, if you've been under the impression that I really know what I'm talking about on this site, well... whose fault is that, really? 
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