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Unless you have somehow managed to avoid celebrity gossip altogether over the past decade or so, there's a good chance you're aware of the awe-inspiring dating record of comedian/actor David Spade. His list of paramours reads like a who's who of hot female celebrities: Pam Anderson, Carmen Electra, Heather Locklear, Jillian Barberie, Teri Hatcher, Krista Allen, Kristy Swanson... you get the picture. Seriously, Derek Jeter thinks David Spade is a stone pimp.
If you're like me, you might wonder how a skinny, five-foot-five, actually-not-all-that-funny comedian manages to pull so much impressive tail. On an Adam Carolla Podcast episode with Bill Simmons, Adam espoused the theory that Spade attracts so many hot babes because most women have low self-esteem — and these women are attracted to Spade because they see all the other hot babes he's dated and they want to be included in that group. Sure, it's a somewhat misogynistic theory, but have you got a better one? "Maybe he's just a great guy!" Yeah, OK.
I'd like to apply The Spade Theory to the NBA in the way that people view mediocre players on great teams. Regardless of how much a particular player actually had to do with his team's success, a player on a team that goes to the NBA Finals gives off a certain aura that leads fans and GMs to overrate him. My first example of The Spade Theory is the way people are talking about free agent forward Hedo Turkoglu.
Turkoglu was the starting small forward for the 59-win Orlando Magic that won the Eastern Conference championship this season, so now he's poised for a generous payday in the 2009 free agency market. The general consensus seems to be that Turkoglu will command $10 million per season or better — and there has even been some chatter that the Raptors might be one of the teams vying for his services. For the moment, let's ignore that Toronto most likely won't have enough cap space to give Turkoglu the type of contract he wants. What really matters is that he's really not that good.
In nine seasons, Turkoglu only had one season that really stood out as even remotely impressive. In 2007-08, he played 37 minutes per game and averaged 19.5 points, 5 assists and 5.7 rebounds while shooting 45.6 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc. Those are impressive numbers and they're reflected in his above-average Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 17.8 (15.0 is considered "average"). He also developed a reputation as being Orlando's go-to man in clutch situations.
Most people probably didn't notice since the Magic were great as a whole this season, but Turkoglu actually experienced a pretty significant dropoff in 2008-09 from his performance last season. All his per game averages were down and his shooting percentages plummeted to 41.3 percent and 35.6 percent (from three) this season. As a result, his PER dropped to 14.8 — which is right around his career PER of 15.1. Furthermore, Hedo was anything but clutch this year as he had a FG% of .357 and a 3P% of .200 in "clutch situations" (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points).
I'm not saying Turkoglu is a lousy player, but I am saying that he is the prototype of an average player and his next employer (if it's not the Magic) is probably going to discover pretty quickly that they overpaid him by at least $20 million over the course of his contract. Just like Jason Kapono looked better than he really is playing with Shaq, Turkoglu has benefitted from playing in Orlando's system where Dwight Howard is the primary focus of opposing defences. When Jameer Nelson was healthy, Turkoglu was actually the fourth-best offensive option on the team. When you combine that with his less-than-stellar defence, is this a guy you think is worth at least $10 million per season?
The only team that can justify paying him that kind of money is Orlando because they have a good thing going and I wouldn't blame them for overpaying Hedo to keep the team together. But if the rumours are true and Bryan Colangelo is trying to figure out a way to get him in a Raptors uniform... well, then I guess that would show he's learned nothing from the Kapono debacle.
For what it's worth, I think it's unlikely the Raptors will end up signing Turkoglu, regardless of their intentions. But if it does happen, I certainly won't be shocked — just like I won't be shocked when David Spade is inevitably dating Bar Rafaeli in a month or so. 
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