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The good news from last night's game is that the Raptors had the best player on the floor — Chris Bosh, who scored 21 points on eight-for-13 shooting (20 of those points came in the first half). The bad news is that the second, third, fourth and fifth-best players are all clearly Boston Celtics.
Last night was a sharp reminder of where the Raptors stand in the NBA's hierarchy. Toronto is not on Boston's level and we will probably be reminded of that fact in Sunday's re-match. The Celtics are bigger (and I mean BIGGER — did you see Michael Sweetney? It takes him about two seconds to pivot and he doesn't actually have to hold the ball in his hands because it orbits him), stronger and simply more skilled than our boys.
In what I expect to be a recurring problem, the Celtics killed the Raptors on the boards last night 44-32, including a 14-6 margin on the offensive boards. Thanks to this, Boston had 10 more field goal attempts than Toronto as well as three more field goal attempts. If you let your opponents have that many more scoring opportunities than you, you're going to lose most nights.
Last season, 14 NBA teams were outrebounded by their opponents over the course of the season. Only three of those teams had winning records: New Orleans (49 wins), Atlanta (47) and Miami (43). Only one of those teams advanced past the first round of the playoffs, and that was because Atlanta and Miami played each other. The average win total of "the out-rebounded group" last season was 32.6.
There is a clear correlation between rebounding and winning, and yet some people continue to labour under the delusion that this team is somehow going to buck that trend and win 50 games with a roster that has almost no chance of out-rebounding their opponents over the course of the season. Yes, Colangelo brought in Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson, but they will likely combine for 20-25 minutes per game while Andrea Bargnani and Hedo Turkoglu will almost certainly combine for 70 minutes per game. Even if Bosh elevates to a career high of, say, 11 rebounds per game, it's still a virtual certainty that the Raptors will be out-rebounded by their opponents for the eighth consecutive season.
My intention isn't to piss on anyone's parade, even though it probably seems that way. I harp on this rebounding problem because too many people seem ignorant — willfully or otherwise — of the fact that the Raptors ongoing deficiency in this area is a significant reason why only one of their past seven seasons ended over .500. Currently, the over-under on Raptors wins this season is at 41.5. That seems more than fair, and might even be giving this team a little too much credit. If you think Vegas is misjudging this team — trust me, they know their shit.
A 41 or 42-win season would most likely be enough to get the Raptors into the playoffs in the East. Unfortunately, that kind of win total will not get you higher than a sixth seed, which means the Raptors would most likely face the Cavs, Magic or Celtics in the first round. I'm sure most of us understand how that will turn out.
You'll notice I'm waited until now to refer to Hedo Turkoglu's debut and how crafty he looked dishing out five assists in just 22 minutes. There's no question the Raptors offence will be improved and simply more fun to watch this season with Turkoglu's addition. There's also no question that replacing Shawn Marion with Turkoglu in the starting lineup is a significant rebounding downgrade to a team that was 22nd in rebounding differential last season.
Am I suggesting that the Raptors would have been better off trying to re-sign Shawn Marion instead of investing $53 million on Turkoglu's playmaking and "clutchness"? You're damn right I am. A lot of people don't like Marion because he has the ugliest shot in the league, but in his last 13 games with the Raptors, he averaged 16.2 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.3 steals and a block. The Raptors won nine of those 13 games.
Would I have given Marion the same contract that Colangelo gave Turkoglu? Nope, but that probably wouldn't have been necessary. Marion signed with the Mavs for five years at $39 million — around $14 million less than Turkoglu reportedly signed for. A middle ground of five years, $45 million would have worked for me, and probably for Marion as well.
I'm well aware that I'm in a small minority (possibly of close to one) that actually would have preferred to hang on to Marion instead of signing Turkoglu. I will be thrilled if I'm proven wrong that Turkoglu will not be the magic potion that will get this team past the first round of the playoffs. But after finally watching all the Raptors' core players together on the floor at one time last night, I'm more convinced than ever that mediocrity is not just a possibility for this team — it's the ceiling. 
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