10/19/09
by: Carlos Chaloub
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As the saying goes, preseason is preseason. Teams try different things to see what works and what doesn't. Lineups change as often as Paris Hilton changes her clothes, but the predominant theme in coaches' speak is always defence — or preaching thereof.
Some teams have it right from the first preseason tip-off. For instance, after Danny Ainge assembled the new-look Celtics in 2007-2008, the team took no time in dominating their opponents defensively — in preseason no less — which carried forward to the regular season, where they led the NBA with a Defensive Rating of 98.9 (points allowed per 100 possessions). The die was cast.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have our beloved Raptors. Coach Triano has preached and preached about defence since day 1 of training camp, and devoted full practices to the implementation of his defensive philosophy, and the team responded in the first 4 games, by sporting a pretty good Defensive Rating of 99.68. Unfortunately, we couldn't take much from those first 4 games, since Bosh and/or Turkoglu were out of the lineup and defensive players, like Johnson and Evans, were out on the court for long stretches.
I was more interested in the 3 games where Turkoglu and Bosh were in the lineup. In these 3 games, the defensive rating went up to 113.93. And it wasn't a single game that caused this, the ratings of the last 3 games were: 118.16, 121.58 and 106.09.
However, even then, I wasn't satisfied with the numbers. Turkoglu and Bosh played limited minutes, especially with Bargnani. Consequently, I set out to isolate the possessions where Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu, the 3 main cogs of the lineup, and who are supposed to be logging the heaviest minutes in the regular season, were together on the floor.
The results, so far, have been disastrous. While the offence has generated a very good 108.35 points per 100 possessions (Offensive Rating), the defence has gone to hell. The Defensive Rating has ballooned to 131.16. Obviously, this is unsustainable (it will improve some), but the signs of a terrible defensive core are there for all to see.
The Celtics and the hobbled Rockets are not known as offensive juggernauts, but they managed to dismantle the Raptors (with these 3 players in the lineup) at a very alarming rate. When Bargnani, Bosh and Turkoglu were not on the court together this preseason, the Raptors' Defensive Rating actually improved drastically to 105.97. Unfortunately, this came with a parallel drop in Offensive Rating to 93.34.
Is the die cast? 
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