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The Orlando Magic are truly a "pick your poison" kind of team. Do you pack the paint and let the Magic try to beat you from the perimeter or do you single-cover Dwight Howard and hope your center can do a reasonable job of limiting his scoring? The Raptors chose the former and the Magic responded by making 17-of-32 three-pointers and scoring 125 points yesterday afternoon.
The Raptors did, in fact, do a decent job of containing Howard in spite of his 24 point, 11 rebound performance. What were the odds a 60 percent career free throw shooter was going to make 14 out of 16 free throw attempts? In comparison, Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon combined to make 17 of their 25 free throws. Jose only missed three of his 154 free throw attempts last season, but he's already missed four of 13 after three games.
If Howard, Bosh and Calderon's free throw shooting was closer to their norms, the Raptors might have actually had a shot in this game. However, it's a little ridiculous to suggest that your team needs to score over 120 points to win a particular game. The fact of the matter is that the Raptors' defence stinks (they're second-to-last in the NBA in Defensive Rating so far with 116.7 points allowed per 100 possessions) and I'm struggling to come up with a reason to hope it's going to get much better as the season progresses.
OK, you could make the case that the Raptors' defence has looked worse than it really is because the first three games have including match-ups against two of the top five teams in the league (Cleveland and Orlando) but how do you explain the 115 points Memphis scored against them after they were held to just 74 points against the Pistons? The Raptors' opponents are shooting a gaudy 46 percent from beyond the arc (28th in the league) after three games, but only 42.3 percent on two-point shots. You might be able to partially explain the fairly low two-point FG% by the fact that the Raptors have sent their opponents to the line an average of 37.7 times per game — the highest average in the league so far.
One Raptor who shouldn't be held accountable for this messy start to the season is Chris Bosh, who is third in the league in points per game (31.0) and second in rebounds per game (14.7). He also did an admirable job guarding Howard yesterday, considering the obvious strength mismatch. Bosh isn't going to be able to keep this pace up — just like Bargnani isn't going to continue to shoot 60 percent on his three-pointers. The Raptors' point guard tandem of Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack have been horrible so far this season so they need to shake the rust off and get in their grooves or else this season could get ugly in a hurry.
Just look at the Raptors' upcoming schedule. Here are their next 11 games: vs. Detroit, at New Orleans, at Dallas, at San Antonio, vs. Chicago, at the Clippers, at Phoenix, at Denver, at Utah, vs. Miami and vs. Orlando. Realistically, how many of those games can we expect the Raptors to win? Three? Maybe four? Are we really supposed to shrug off a potential 4-10 start?
Our worst fears about this team's defence and rebounding (they're 23rd in rebounding differential) are being realized right off the bat in 2009-10. They give their opponents' shooters too many open looks, they're not quick or strong enough to guard good post players without fouling them, and they're getting out-hustled on the boards. Andrea Bargnani's rebounding has returned to his exact rate from his first two seasons (5.6 rebounds per 36 minutes) and that's simply unacceptable. I've always maintained that I can deal with Bargnani's poor rebounding if the team, as a whole, doesn't get consistently out-rebounded. But that's exactly what's happening even though Bosh is grabbing boards at an almost Howard-esque level.
Do you suppose the defensive and rebounding woes might have something to do with the fact that the Raptors replaced Shawn Marion with Hedo Turkoglu? While Turkoglu averages 3.9 rebounds per 36 minutes for the Raptors, Marion is grabbing 8.0 boards per 36 for the Mavericks. Bargnani and Turkoglu defenders tried to tell me that their rebounding rates would go up this season because there would be more rebounds available to them. I thought that was horseshit at the time and it looks like I was right.
Hey, maybe they'll prove me wrong and improve dramatically on defence and on the boards as the season progresses, but I'm not holding my breath. This Bargnani, Bosh, Turkoglu combination does not look like a winning one — and if I'm Bosh, I'm already starting to wonder if this is the team I want to sign with after this season.
Too soon, you say? OK, allow me to be proven wrong. Right now, I see a team that has an upside of around .500 followed by a rude and hasty exit from the first round of the playoffs. Whoop-de-doo. 
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