1/4/10
by: Carlos Chaloub
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While reading Doug Smith's blog this morning, I was greeted with this gem: "I'm told by an impeccable source that while they were figuring out what to do with the Spurs, assistant coach Micah Nori was parsing the boxscores and saw that San Antonio seldom wins when it makes fewer than — I think it was — five three-pointers. He points this out, the coaches discuss it and a game plan is born. They decide it's best to "lean" on three-point shooters a wee bit more than usual, to give up contested twos if they must but to not let the Spurs go nuts from beyond the arc. What happens? Spurs go 4-13 from three-point range and Toronto wins."
First, Doug meant four three-pointers and not five, because the Spurs' record when they make five three-pointers or fewer is 8-6. When they make four or fewer, it is 3-6. And since from that quote, it seems that he wasn't sure, then I'll run with four.
So, let me get this straight. The coaching staff just figured out that limiting an opponent's three-point makes to four or under is a good way to win a basketball game. And Doug makes it sound like they discovered kryptonite.
I quickly ran some numbers to figure this thing out. How many games were lost and won when a team is able to make four or less three-point shots? Here's the full table:
The opponent's record when it makes four three-point shots or fewer is 0.375. For fairness sake, I removed the records of the New Jersey Nets and the Minnesota Timberwolves, since they are awful no matter how many three-point field goals they make, and the combined record is still an awful 0.395. In fact, only three teams have a record better than 0.500 when they make fewer than five treys: Los Angeles Lakers, Cleveland Cavaliers and Dallas Mavericks, and two of the Cavaliers' wins came against New Jersey.
The team's defensive strategy should ALWAYS be to limit an opponent's three-point field goals to four or fewer, while conceding the long two-point jumpers — the least effective shot in the modern NBA. Chasing the shooters off the 3-point line while still protecting the house with the bigs is an effective way to stay in the game as long as possible, and more than likely win it.
It's not rocket science. 
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