After back-to-back road wins for this team, it appears that under at least some ideal circumstances that this team does not actually suck. It further appears (at least to me) that if these ideal circumstances happen often enough, that 20-30 wins might be possible. Which prompts me to ask: what might these circumstances be?
Assume, for the sake of not duplicating discussion elsewhere - and because the likelihood of the changes happening is not high at the moment - that Babcock, Mitchell, and Rose are not going anywhere for now.
Here's my list of possible ingredients (so far) for 20-30 wins:
1. Bosh needs to play at or above his current level for the rest of the season. Ditto Jose Calderon.
2. The Raptors need at least 20-25 good-if-if-not-stellar minutes, and ideally 30-35 minutes, at the center position by someone other than Chris Bosh. Araujo has been playing about 20 minutes a game recently, and they've generally been "good enough" minutes, preventing the Raptors from being abused down the middle and contributing here and there in other ways. 20 minutes seems to be his limit so far as far as I can see, but if he can improve his concentration or conditioning, or Pape Sow performs acceptably or better as a center when he gets brought up, we should be OK for the time being at center.
(Aside: I wonder whether, given that the Rimrockers started Pape Sow at center when he was doing mighty fine at PF in his first three games, the point of his D-league assignment was to get him used to playing center so that he could start making the necessary adjusments without being subjected to the Toronto media pressure cooker. Thoughts?)
3. Unless they change their ways, never play Mike James and Jalen Rose at the same time, even if it means putting Martin (or someone else playing out of position) in at point guard when resting Calderon. One or the other of Mike and Jalen out there on the floor is fine, but having both of them out there together disrupts the Raptors' offensive flow, reducing ball movement and resulting in more long jumpers and less attacking the basket. Which reminds me...
4. Charlie Villanueva needs to play aggressively towards the basket. When Charlie attacks the basket (by driving the lane, by timely shooting, or by competing agressively for rebounds), and Chris Bosh is on the floor, it will give the opponents fits defensively. because it punishes the opposing team for double-teaming Bosh. Not only that, Charlie playing aggressively gives the rest of the squad an instant energy boost and improves the overall aggression of the team as well.
5. Mo Pete needs to shoot 45-50% or better most games and take ~10 shots per game or even 15-ish or more if he's the hot hand, as well as working hard overall.
6. Jalen Rose needs shoot less until he starts shooting better than 40% from the field. 2 for 6 or 2 for 8 isn't nearly as deadly to the Raptor offence as 3 or 4 for 12 is. If he would be motivated enough to play with effort on defence and rebounding, and unseflish enough to play pass-first for the rest of the season, that would be a nice bonus, but all we really really need from Rose right now is to not sink the ship on any given night.
7. Derrick Martin and Matt Bonner need to ready to contribute by playing 10-15 minutes as reserves, or more under unusal circumstances. Ditto Joey Graham, alhough he'll likely be getting more playing time, and if he continues to show slow-but-steady improvement, he'll likely be playing more and contributing more as the season goes on. (Also ditto Aaron and Eric Williams, although who know whether they'll ever see the floor in toronto again given the current youth movement.)
Anyway, that's my list. Is there anything you'd add to or delete from it? Do you think that it would be enough?
(Also, note that there are other storylines that may change this, of course; if Babcock and Mitchell decide they can go with Calderon and Martin exclusively at PG, look for James to be traded, possibly with a Williams or two to balance the salaries. Or if Sow is looking to get regular minutes, a buyout to free up a roster spot might be a possiblity. And so on.)
Thoughts?